Evaluation of Bullwhip effect on Supply Chain Using Fuzzy Inference System

The Bullwhip effect is a phenomenon which determines the variability of demand and information between different stages of supply chain. It may increase the variability of the information about customers’ demands move upstream in the supply chain. The goal of this paper is to develop a Fuzzy Inference System model to evaluate Bullwhip effect. According to the literature some major variables were extracted and combined with other variables. The case study is a car industry company named Bahman Group which assembles Mazda cars in Iran. The model has been sent to the company’s experts and any change if necessary has been applied. The model runs in Bahman Group. Results show a medium value for Bullwhip effect (0.5145). The research concludes with some suggestions to reduce Bullwhip effect. Finally extreme test done and the results show that operational source are more effective on controlling Bullwhip Effect.