A probabilistic statistical approach to the ultimate failure of ceramic-matrix composites—part II: macroscopic model

This paper (part II) proposes a macroscopic probabilistic model of ultimate failure for CMCs. The model is based on the features displayed by the strength of 2D woven SiC/SiC composites that were reported in part I. These features were attributed to variability in the local stress state. An analogy with the ergodic theory is used to illustrate the heuristic fluctuations of the local stress-state and to construct the model. The probabilistic model that is proposed is then used to predict the ultimate failure of 2D woven SiC/SiC composites under 4-point bending conditions, from the strength distributions obtained using tensile and three-point flexure tests. Predictions compare satisfactorily to experimental results.