Assessing the effectiveness of hydrological similarity measures for flood frequency analysis

This paper evaluates the relative performance of four hydrological similarity measures that are used to form homogeneous pooling groups for regional frequency analysis. One pair of similarity measures is based on seasonality indexes that reflect the timing of extreme events. A further pair of measures considers a characterisation, at the basin scale, of the frequency distribution of rainfall extremes and the extent of the impervious portion of the catchment. The measures are applied to a case study encompassing a large area in Northern-Central Italy. The similarity measures are examined in the context of a pooling scheme that is designed to identify hierarchical, focused pooling groups. The performance of the similarity measures is quantified using a Monte Carlo experiment. The results demonstrate that similarity measures based on seasonality indexes are effective for estimating extreme flow quantiles for the study area. For ungauged catchments, a similarity measure incorporating both rainfall statistics and permeability information is most effective.