Spatio-temporal variability in Ebro river basin (NE Spain): Global SST as potential source of predictability on decadal time scales

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow in the Ebro river basin and its potential predictability. Principal Component Analysis applied to monthly streamflow series from 83 gauging stations distributed through the basin, reveals three homogeneous regions: Basque–Cantabrian, Pyrenees and Southern Mediterranean. Attending to this classification the main characteristic time scales of the maximum monthly streamflows are studied by Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA). Decadal variations in streamflow make particularly large contributions to year-to-year streamflow variance in stations placed in the Basque–Cantabrian and Southern Mediterranean regions, while for the Pyrenees flows the interannual contribution is more important. The predictability of the Ebro flow anomalies has been investigated using a combined methodology: at decadal time scales SST anomalies from several regions provide a significant source of predictability for the Ebro flow, while at interannual time scales autoregressive-moving-average modelling, applied to the time series previously filtered by SSA, is able to provide potential skill in forecasting. For gauging stations associated to the Basque–Cantabrian region significant correlations between the maximum monthly streamflow anomalies and a tripole-like pattern in the North Atlantic SSTs during the previous spring are found. This association is found maximum and stable for the tropical part of the pattern (approximately 0–20°N). For the gauging stations placed to the southeast of basin some influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is found. This method allows evaluating, independently, the decadal and interannual predictability of the streamflow series. In addition, the combination of both modelling techniques gives as result a methodology that has the capacity to provide basin-specific hydroclimatic predictions which vary (for the 1990–2003 validation period) between 62% for the Basque–Cantabrian region, 76% for the Southern Mediterranean and 81% for the Pyrenees. In summary, this work shows the existence of a valuable decadal and interannual predictability of the Ebro streamflow, a result which may be useful to water resources management.