Solar cosmic ray measurements as a tool for the magnetic storm commencement forecast Original Research Article

Two methods are described and used for the estimation of the coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival time to the Earth. The first one is based on the simple relation of CME velocity with solar >1 MeV energetic proton (SEP) peak intensity taking into account the location of the event on the Sun. The second method is based on the general analytical solution of the non-stationary transport equation that allows us to estimate the SEP event start time on the Sun.