Comet and asteroid hazard to the terrestrial planets Original Research Article

We estimated the rate of comet and asteroid collisions with the terrestrial planets by calculating the orbits of 13,000 Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) and 1300 resonant asteroids and computing the probabilities of collisions based on random-phase approximations and the orbital elements sampled with a 500 years step. The Bulirsh–Stoer and a symplectic orbit integrator gave similar results for orbital evolution, but may give different collision probabilities with the Sun. A small fraction of former JCOs reached orbits with aphelia inside Jupiterʹs orbit and some reached Apollo orbits with semi-major axes less than 2 AU, Aten orbits and inner-Earth orbits (with aphelia less than 0.983 AU) and remained there for millions of years. Though less than 0.1% of the total, these objects were responsible for most of the collision probability of former JCOs with Earth and Venus. We conclude that a significant fraction of near-Earth objects could be extinct comets that came from the trans-Neptunian region or most of such comets disintegrated during their motion in near-Earth object orbits.