The MASTER-2001 model Original Research Article

Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Reference model (MASTER) is the European particulate environment and risk assessment model. It is based on quasi-deterministic principles, using comprehensive orbit propagation theories and volume discretisation techniques, to derive spatial density and velocity distributions in a three-dimensional control volume ranging from LEO to GEO altitudes. The new release, MASTER-2001, incorporates new modelling and validation approaches and enables the calculation of fluxes on targets operating between the year 1957 and 2050, using detailed simulation results. This could be achieved by using not only the POEM simulation tool for the past to present debris populations, but also applying the long term prediction tool DELTA to obtain future populations. The paper describes the features and results of the MASTER-2001 model, and the updated modelling approach (e.g., the use of a new fragmentation model). The historical and future evolution of the space debris environment in terms of spatial density and object fluxes as given by MASTER-2001 are presented and discussed.