EVOLVE historical and projected orbital debris test environments Original Research Article

The NASA/JSC orbital debris research effort within the Earthʹs low-altitude regime continues with the upgrade of the debris environment simulation model EVOLVE. Two main contributions to this new version will include a more streamlined structure (transparent to the analyst) and an updated, expanded set of launch/orbital insertion files. The new database includes such improvements as high fidelity launch times and orbital elements, dataderived area-to-mass ratios, and individual object dry mass and physical description. As an additional test of the new code, a version of the Anz-Meador [Adv. Space Res. (2004)] explosive fragmentation model is implemented and the resulting historical and projected LEO environments are compared to those of the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) Catalog, ORDEM2000, and EVOLVE 4.1 (the current production version of the code) historical and projection periods EVOLVE test historical environments compare well with the catalog and ORDEM2000 environments over the 1-mm and larger size range. However, it should be noted that SRM slag is not included in EVOLVE at this time. Differences between the EVOLVE test and the EVOLVE 4.1 long-term projection environments are traced directly to the modified launch cycle and the chosen form of the Anz-Meador [Adv. Space Res. (2004)] breakup model of this EVOLVE test.