LEGEND – a three-dimensional LEO-to-GEO debris evolutionary model Original Research Article

A new orbital debris evolutionary model is being developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center. LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, is capable of reproducing the historical debris environment as well as performing future debris environment projection. The model covers the near Earth space between 200 and 40,000 km altitude and outputs debris distributions in one-dimensional (altitude), two-dimensional (altitude, latitude), and three-dimensional (altitude, latitude, longitude) formats. LEGEND is a three-year (2001–2003) project. The historical part of the model has been completed and the future projection part is being developed/tested. The model utilizes a recently updated historical satellite launch database, two efficient and accurate propagators, and a new NASA satellite breakup model. This paper summarizes the justifications for building a full-scale three-dimensional debris evolutionary model, the overall model structure, and several key components of the model. Preliminary model predictions of debris distributions in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) regions are presented.