Analysis of reentry survivability of UARS spacecraft Original Research Article

An analysis of reentry survivability of the NASA Goddard space flight center (GSFC) upper atmosphere research satellite (UARS) was performed by Lockheed Martin space operations (LMSO), Houston, TX. The objective of this study was to use the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson space center (JSC)/LMSO object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) to investigate reentry, breakup, demise, and impact of approximately 160 specific components of the UARS. This paper contains descriptions of the UARS spacecraft as modeled by ORSAT, method of approach (including assumptions), and results obtained. The analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body, will demise, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) will survive. The components that survive produce a debris casualty area of 22 m2, a surviving mass of 532 kg, a casualty risk of 1:2800, and a debris footprint length of nearly 800 km. The 22 m2 debris casualty area reflects the results of a parametric assessment; otherwise the casualty area would have been larger.