Forecasting electron precipitation based on predicted geomagnetic activity Original Research Article

We have developed a statistical model of precipitating electrons based on 10 years worth of NOAA-12 Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data. For each hour of UT, the electron spectral shape is defined for solar activity (using F10.7), geomagnetic activity (using Dst, Kp, and PC), invariant latitude (40 to 90°N and −40° to −90°S), and every hour of magnetic local time to form a climatology. The current version of our climatology includes a description of the precipitating differential number flux, unfolded from the integral high-energy telescopes of SEM and its lower-energy differential measurements. In total, the energy range covered by SEM is from 300 eV to 1 MeV. We use real-time Dst predictions from several sites on the Internet which forecast Dst up to 1 h ahead of time to predict the corresponding precipitating electron flux. Our electron precipitation forecast contributes to space weather applications by predicting a spectral description of atmospheric electron energy input. These electron energy spectra can be used to generate atmospheric energy input, ionization rates and height-integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities, which are important parameters to models such as AMIE and TIME-GCM. Our data could also improve the space environment description used in spacecraft charging models.