Initial results of the evaluation of IRI hmF2 performance for minima 22–23 and 23–24 Original Research Article

The performance of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) in predicting the height of the maximum of electron density (hmF2) has been evaluated for similar geomagnetic latitudes stations in the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH), and for the last two minima. As truth-sites, the digisonde stations of Millstone Hill (42.6°N, 288.5°E), USA, and Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), South Africa, were considered. A monthly averaged diurnal variation was obtained from all the observations and model output in the months studied, and the corresponding difference was also calculated. For this initial study data from summer and winter in the NH and SH were selected for the solstice comparison, and October data for both stations were used to represent equinox conditions. The choice of these periods depended on data availability and quality. The results show that for the earlier minimum in 1996, in general IRI hmF2 values are in reasonable agreement with the observations. The exceptions are October and December in the SH, where IRI hmF2 tends to high, particularly on the dayside, and also July for which the daytime measured values tend to be larger than the IRI ones. For the recent minimum in 2008, IRI tends to over-estimate the hmF2 in most of the observations. The results support the general assertion that thermospheric temperatures were cooler during the last solar minimum as a consequence of an unusually low, and extended, minimum in solar extreme-ultraviolet flux, and in response to continually increasing long-term trend in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. The cooler temperatures not only decrease density at a fixed height, but also make the corresponding contraction of the atmosphere lower the height of the F-region peak.