Risk assessment of satellite launch with reusable launch vehicle

A new methodology is developed for assessing the risk associated with launching satellites in space by use of Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVs). The objective is to assess the Maximum Probable Loss (MPL) for third party insurance purposes, which is a requirement for licensing of private operators. Launch industry convention has been to execute an MPL analysis for each and every flight. With the advent of commercial, reusable launch vehicle services, much higher flight rates are anticipated. Consequently a method for developing a conservative, ‘once-and-for-all’ MPL value is desirable. Failures during the boost, orbital vehicle, and return phases of the flight that could lead to impact of the rocket or its stages on the ground are considered. Simple geometric models are used to evaluate an upper bound to the probability that assets of various form and size on the ground will be hit by a stray rocket or vehicle stage. Models for the loss resulting from hitting an asset are also developed. The methodology is applied to a proposed launch site in Southern Australia.