An analytic model for situation assessment of nuclear power plant operators based on Bayesian inference

Simulation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods such as IDAC seem to provide a new direction for the development of advanced HRA methods. In such simulation-based HRA methods, the simulation model for the situation assessment of nuclear power plant (NPP) operators is essential, especially for addressing the issue of errors-of-commission (EOCs). Therefore, we propose an analytic model for the situation assessment of NPP operators based on Bayesian inference. The proposed model is found to be able to address several important features of the situation assessment of NPP operators, and is expected to provide good approximations to some parts of the situation assessment. A comparison with an existing model and identification of several other features of the situation assessment of NPP operators that should be further addressed are also provided.