Trade-offs between seedling growth, thinning and stand stability in Sitka spruce stands: a modelling analysis

The forest industry is increasingly adopting alternative silvicultural systems, involving regeneration beneath an existing forest canopy, rather than clear-felling and replanting. To apply these silvicultural systems in windy regions such as Britain and Ireland, it is essential that the interactions between thinning intensity, stand stability and seedling growth are properly understood. Here, we present a modelling analysis of the three key relationships between: (i) stand density and the proportion of incident radiation transmitted through a forest canopy as a stand is thinned; (ii) transmitted radiation and seedling growth, and (iii) stand density and stand stability. These relationships were examined using separate models of radiative transfer (MAESTRO), seedling growth, and stand stability/wind risk (ForestGALES). Output from the three models was synthesised to calculate whether a given stand thinned to a predefined stability limit would allow sufficient light to penetrate the canopy for seedling growth. A minimum transmittance of 20% was identified as a requirement for seedling growth, which corresponds to removing 45% of stand basal area. A thinning of this intensity left some stands susceptible to unacceptable wind damage, especially in old or previously thinned stands on soils where rooting is impeded. The results emphasised the fact that rooting conditions, thinning history and age of intervention are major constraints on the silvicultural options. In general, older stands are not suitable for conversion to continuous cover forestry (CCF) systems, and the transformation process should begin at pole stage, when heavy thinning does not leave the stand unstable. The analysis approach used here illustrates the potential for combining models to address complex forest management issues.