Probabilistic social cost-benefit analysis for green roofs: A lifecycle approach

Green roofs have been used as an environmentally friendly product for many centuries and considered as a sustainable construction practice. Economic and environmental benefits of green roofs are already proven by many researchers. However, a lifecycle net benefit-cost analysis, with the social dimension, is still missing. Sustainable development requires quantitative estimates of the costs and benefits of current green technologies to encourage their use. This paper is based on an extensive literature review in multiple fields and reasonable assumptions for unavailable data. The Net Present Value (NPV) per unit of area of a green roof was assessed by considering the social-cost benefits that green roofs generate over their lifecycle. Two main types of green roofs – i.e. extensive and intensive – were analyzed. Additionally, an experimental extensive green roof, which replaced roof layers with construction and demolition waste (C&D), was assessed. A probabilistic analysis was performed to estimate the personal and social NPV and payback period of green roofs. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was also conducted. The analysis demonstrated that green roofs are short-term investments in terms of net returns. In general, installing green roofs is a low risk investment. Furthermore, the probability of profits out of this technology is much higher than the potential financial losses. It is evident that the inclusion of social costs and benefits of green roofs improves their value.