The effects of explosive blast load variability on safety hazard and damage risks for monolithic window glazing

Although the modelling of built infrastructure subject to blast loading has been well developed, considerable uncertainty remains with respect to explosive loading parameters and structural response. This paper focuses on facade glazing – as this poses significant safety hazards when affected by explosive blast loads. A structural reliability analysis is used to calculate probabilities of glazing damage and safety hazards conditional on given threat scenarios. The analysis considers the variability of explosive blast loading; in particular, from variations in explosive weight, explosion effects in terms of pressure, stand-off distance, inherent blast load variability and model error. Uncertainties in structural response (including the variability in glazing stress limits, situational geometry, fragment drag coefficients and modelling error) are then considered in the analysis. This allows the prediction of likelihood and extent of damage and casualties. It was found that damage and safety hazard risks are very sensitive to the accuracy of the blast loading prediction model and the inherent variability of blast loading.