Long-term socio-economic and spatial pattern drivers of land cover change in a Caribbean tropical moist forest, the Cockpit Country, Jamaica

Very little research has considered the underlying drivers of land cover change in Caribbean islands, particularly in those islands that are still experiencing a net loss of forest cover. We investigated the underlying driving forces (socio-economic drivers) and spatial pattern drivers (biophysical features) of both deforestation and reforestation in the Cockpit Country, Jamaica. This area is one of the most globally important sites for plant diversity, but is threatened by clearance for small-scale agriculture. Drivers of change were assessed for both the individual time steps within the study period (1942–2010) and for the entire 68 years using multivariate, spatially explicit, statistical models. The primary drivers of deforestation over the study period were accessibility (gentler slopes, closer to forest edges, more fragmented forests) and greater relative wealth/socio-economic status (increased access to piped water). Reforestation generally increased closer to forest edges and in areas with lower market access (greater distances to roads and towns) and lower wealth/status (increased reliance on pit latrines). We found considerable temporal variation among the most important drivers for each time step, including climate, employment status, population density, population age structure and relative wealth. Forest reserve status was not a key determinant of deforestation but did increase the probability of reforestation between 1961 and 1980. During the final time step (2001–2010) access was less important as a deterrent to deforestation, which increased within the most contiguous forest blocks. If the deforestation drivers of the last decade do not change, deforestation is predicted to occur within the forest reserves, and in the largest, least fragmented forest blocks. Thus, conservation and management strategies for our study site must seek to address issues related to both enforcement and the socio-economic factors that influence deforestation and habitat fragmentation.