Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach

Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogenous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the sub-national levels. The bio-economic farm model (BEFM) is used for ex ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The BEFM is calibrated to 10 farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations.