Vote evolution in Spain, 1977–2007: A spatial analysis at the municipal scale

This paper presents a spatial analysis of the results in the general elections of contemporary Spain (1977–2007). By using electoral data at municipal level, we have traced back the evolution of the vote at high spatial resolution, thus providing a more accurate overview of the evolution of modern Spanish politics and offering empirical evidence on the nationalization thesis. We demonstrate that this approach reveals several processes that remain hidden when aggregated data are used, especially the clustering patterns in the smooth transition from dictatorship to full democracy (the so-called Spanish Transition). We found a statistical normalization process of the left/right dynamics with a growing number of balanced municipalities with a similar number of votes for left and right parties. The tendency towards a Gaussian histogram centered on a value of 50% for the left vote is an indication of political normalization after 40 years of dictatorship.