Practical sequential bounds for approximating two-terminal reliability

With increasing emphases on better and more reliable services, network systems have incorporated reliability analysis as an integral part in their planning, design and operation. This article first presents a simple exact decomposition algorithm for computing the NP-hard two-terminal reliability, which measures the probability of successful communication from specified source node to sink node in the network. Then a practical bounding algorithm, which is indispensable for large networks, is presented by modifying the exact algorithm for obtaining sequential lower and upper bounds on two-terminal reliability. Based on randomly generated large networks, computational experiments are conducted to compare the proposed algorithm to the well-known and widely used edge-packing approximation model and to explore the performance of the proposed bounding algorithm. Computational results reveal that the proposed bounding algorithm is superior to the edge-packing model, and the trade-off of accuracy for execution time ensures that an exact difference between upper and lower bounds on two-terminal reliability can be obtained within an acceptable time.