The small scale anisotropies, the spectrum and the sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays

We calculate the number density and luminosity of the sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs), using the information about the small scale anisotropies and the observed spectra. We find that the number of doublets and triplets observed by AGASA can be best reproduced for a source density of ∼10−5 Mpc−3, with large uncertainties. The spectrum of UHECRs implies an energy input of ∼6 × 1044 erg yr−1 Mpc−3 above 1019 eV and an injection spectrum∝E−2.6. A flatter injection spectrum, E−2.4, can be adopted if the sources have luminosity evolution∝(1+z)4. The combination of these two pieces of information suggests that the single sources should on average have a cosmic ray luminosity above 1019 eV of Lsource≈2×1042 erg s−1, weakly dependent upon the injection spectrum. Unfortunately, with the limited statistics of events available at present, there are approximately one-two orders of magnitude uncertainty in the source density provided above. We make predictions on the expected performances of the Auger and EUSO experiments, with particular attention for the expected improvements in our understanding of the nature of the sources of UHECRs. We find that a critical experimental exposure Σc exists, such that experiments with exposure larger than Σc can detect at least one event from each source at energies above 1020 eV. This represents a unique opportunity to directly count and identify the sources of UHECRs.