A system for early-warning and forecasting of real estate development

This paper presents a pre-warning system developed to monitor and provide pre-warning to the governmental decision makers in the Shenzhen property market. The paper analyses essential factors affecting the Shenzhen real estate market. A set of factors are selected and a statistical early-warning method, which can monitor the Shenzhen real estate property market, is developed. In addition, a system dynamics model has been developed, which can provide a simulation tool to predict the effect of regulatory policies on the real estate market. Evaluation results indicate that the pre-warning system can provide useful information to regulate the property market in Shenzhen.