A method for quantitative risk assessment of temperature control in insulated boxes

The domestic transport of low volume perishable products is commonly conducted with the use of insulated boxes and non-refrigerated commercial courier networks. The temperature of the product during transport is governed by the balance of the environmental temperature and the protection provided by the boxʹs insulation and accompanying coolant (e.g. ice). While the box, product and coolant properties may be constant, the ability of that package to maintain appropriate product temperatures will be different due to the day-to-day variation in environmental conditions. This paper presents a method that uses historic climatic data to estimate environmental temperatures during transport and subsequently provides a quantitative estimate of the likelihood of package temperature control failure. Three packages travelling by road from Sydney to Melbourne are compared as an example of the use of the methodology.