The Risk Analysis of Oil Projects Using Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique (Case Study: 18-inch Pipeline Repair Project From Cheshme Khosh to Ahwaz)

In most decision making and ranking issues, a matrix is usually formed from multiple decision making criteria and a process is usually followed for finding the best option from the available options concerning the investigated indices. The best model used in this process is MCDM which includes various techniques like AHP, TOPSIS and LINMAP. TOPSIS technique is a compensatory model where the interaction between indices is allowed and the changes in one index can be compensated by another opposing change in another index. Project risk management is among the main topics in project management, which provides the possibility of ranking risks based on their criticality and presenting an appropriate and on time response. This is much more important in big industrial projects including oil projects. To this end, the present study first identifies 116 main risks in big 18-inch pipeline repair project from Cheshme Khosh to Ahwaz based on experts: panel and interview and ranks five main evaluation indices, i.e. time, quality, safety, cost and environmental effects based on fuzzy TOPSIS. Then the probability of occurrence and effectiveness of each identified risk on five indices were investigated through questionnaire and at the end, the final ranking of each risk was identified. The results of the study showed that five identified critical risk in the studied project are sanction, inflation, rapid changes in rate of materials and equipment, rapid changes of exchange rate and at the end, impossibility of having access and transaction for supplying foreign goods. At the end, some practical and research suggestions have been provided.