Statistical Downscaling HadCM3 Model for Detection and Perdiction of Seasonal Climatic Variations (Case Study: Khabr Rangeland, Kerman, Iran)

Abstract. Rangelands are one of the most vulnerable parts concerning the climate changes’ impacts. These impacts are even stronger in the arid and semi-arid areas where rangeland ecosystems are in critical conditions. Therefore, it is crucial to figure out the actual dynamics of climate variations on the rangelands. The aim of this research was to determine climate changes in Khabr rangeland, Kerman, Iran. So, four meteorological data sets of HadCM3 model including minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and radiation rates were used to assess climate changes in the region. In this regard, climate changes during 2011-2039 were assessed by downscaling HadCM3 data using LARS-WG model under three scenarios of B1, A2 and A1B. The results have showed that the rainfall rates of spring and summer would have declining trends under all three scenarios. Minimum and maximum temperature rates would increase in all seasons, and just radiation one showed a decreasing trend for winter. Based on A1B scenario, minimum and maximum temperature rates had the highest increasing trend. Radiation and precipitation had the highest increasing and declining trends in the A2 scenario, respectively. Moreover, the increase in maximum and minimum temperature rates was averagely greater than the past and consequently despite the increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperature rates, the increase in the mean temperature rate during this period would be expected. According to the results, Khabr rangeland’s climatic conditions will be significantly different in the next 30 years and long-term and strategic planning is necessary in consistent with the management policies with these conditions.