The Risk Analysis of Oil Projects Using Fuzz ANP Technique (Case Study: 18-inch Pipeline Repair Project from Cheshme Khosh to Ahwaz)

Risk management is one of the main topics in project management which provides the possibility of risk ranking based on their criticality and timely response. This is much more important in big industrial projects including oil projects. To this end, the present study first identifies 116 main risks in big 18-inch pipeline repair project from Cheshme Khosh to Ahwaz based on expertsʹ panels and interview and ranks five main evaluation indices, i.e. time, quality, safety, cost and environmental effects based on fuzzy TOPSIS. Then the probability of occurrence and effectiveness of each identified risk on five indices were investigated through questionnaire and at the end, the final ranking of each risk was identified. The results of the study showed that five identified critical risk in the studied project are sanction, inflation, rapid changes in rate of materials and equipment, rapid changes of exchange rate and at the end, impossibility of having access and transaction for supplying foreign goods. At the end, some practical and research suggestions have been provided.