The Investigation of Effective Tax Capacity on Prediction of Tax Revenues (Case Study: Tax Office of Golestan Province(

Tax is considered as the most common and significance financial source for supplying public revenues and one of the most efficient and effective instruments of financial policy in the world; whereby the government can offer many social and welfare services to people and direct most economic and social activities and flows. Thus, precise recognition of potential tax revenues provides a clear vision for economic planning for economy policy makers. Scientific prediction of revenues leads to increase of precision and attempt of tax officers on taxation. The aim of this study was to investigate effective factors of tax capacity on prediction of tax revenues in Golestan province. In this study, OLS econometric method has been used for estimation of tax capacity and ARMA method has been used for prediction of tax revenues by Eviews software. Thus, the present research methodology is descriptive- analytical casual. Based on the results of obtained prediction from ARMA models, it is observed that tax revenues of the province has increasing growth and it is predicted that until 1400, tax revenues of the province would reach 846,213 million IRR, which is about 1.6 times more than tax revenue of 2010. The obtained results indicated that consumption tax, corporate tax, income tax and wealth tax have increasing trend. At the end, some recommendations have been offered.