Assessment of uncertainty in response estimation for turbine engine bladed disks

Stress prediction in turbine blades is affected by limitations in the measurement setup as well as by various sources of uncertainty in the model-based inference techniques. The presence of uncertainty diminishes the confidence in the estimated response, whose fidelity lowers further when results are extrapolated to operating conditions or systems other than the tested ones. A procedure is being developed with a twofold objective: maximization, under given computational constraints, of a systemʹs model accuracy and quantification of any remaining uncertainty associated with the estimation technique. A probabilistic analysis, in which uncertainties are explicitly modeled has been carried out to investigate the effects of modeling and input parameter uncertainties, and to evaluate their contribution to a systemʹs vibratory response prediction. Results and considerations are herein described and discussed.