Determining probability of mission success when using deep penetration weapons

This paper presents the methodology for a system reliability analysis that can determine the probability of mission success of the destruction of buried concrete targets using deep penetration weapons. The success of the mission depends on various parameters, such as the properties of the target, the velocity and structural strength of the missile, the impact angle, etc., as well as other military scenarios. However, this paper only considers the structural design aspects. In this paper, analytical equations for the depth of penetration and buckling strength of the missile are used to demonstrate an efficient system reliability analysis methodology. These equations are also used to determine the sensitivity of mission success to various parameters. A discussion on the selection of parameters to maximize the mission success is also presented.