Analysis of historical total production costs of cellulosic ethanol and forecasting for the 2020-decade

This paper presents a comparative analysis of total production costs (TPCs) published between 1995 and 2013 of cellulosic ethanol produced with biochemical platforms. TPC values were first grouped by plant capacity (small, medium and large) and updated (c. 2013) using the US PP Index in order to consider inflation effects. Feedstock and enzymes “per-litre” contributions to each updated TPC value were substituted by the calculated average values thus normalizing the impact of these TPC contributions. Differences in normalized TPC values could, therefore, be associated to other TPC contributions such as capital, operation and financial factors. Based on these data TPC values of cellulosic ethanol–gasoline-equivalent for large capacity plants were calculated for the 2020 decade. The results were compared against average US gasoline TPC forecasts.