A systematic method for quantifying wind flow modelling uncertainty in wind resource assessment

An estimate of energy yield uncertainty is essential information for assessing the financial risk of a potential wind farm. The uncertainty associated with the wind flow model can make up a significant part of the overall energy yield uncertainty. In the present work, a systematic method for estimating wind flow modelling uncertainty is presented. The method is easy to implement with basic energy yield variables and is applicable to industry standard wind flow models such as WAsP and MS3DJH. The equations used are empirical fits to real wind flow model errors obtained by analysing historical data from over 500 mast pairs.