Understanding cyclical thrombocytopenia: A mathematical modeling approach

Cyclical thrombocytopenia (CT) is a rare hematological disease characterized by periodic oscillations in the platelet count. Although first reported in 1936, the pathogenesis and an effective therapy remain to be identified. Since besides fluctuations in platelet levels the patients hematological profile have been consistently normal, a destabilization of a peripheral control mechanism might play an important role in the genesis of this disorder. In this paper, we investigate through computer simulations the mechanisms underlying the platelet oscillations observed in CT. First, we collected the data published in the last 40 years and quantified the significance of the platelet fluctuations using Lomb–Scargle periodograms. Our analysis reveals that the incidence of the statistically significant periodic data is equally distributed in men and women. The mathematical model proposed in this paper captures the essential features of hematopoiesis and successfully duplicates the characteristics of CT. With the same parameter changes, the model is able to fit the platelet counts and to qualitatively reproduce the TPO oscillations (when data is available). Our results indicate that a variation in the megakaryocyte maturity, a slower relative growth rate of megakaryocytes, as well as an increased random destruction of platelets are the critical elements generating the platelet oscillations in CT.