A stochastic population model for high demand CCRCs

This paper presents a multi-state stochastic model for analyzing continuing care retirement community (CCRC) populations. The model considers CCRCs with a number of independent living units and a skilled nursing facility. Residents may transfer temporarily or permanently to this facility. It is assumed that units vacated by deaths, withdrawals or permanent transfers are immediately occupied by a new resident. Transfers are modeled using a time-homogeneous Markov process. Under this model, a procedure is developed for determining the equilibrium joint distribution of the number of temporary transfers and the number of permanent transfers.