Modelling the recent time trends in UK permanent health insurance recovery, mortality and claim inception transition intensities

Models representing the underlying trends in UK permanent health insurance (PHI) recovery, mortality and claim inception transition intensitives over the 20 year calendar period, from 1975 to 1994 inclusive, are proposed. The investigation of such trends is of special interest given that the three transition intensities, with stationary estimates based on the equivalent grouped data for the quadrennial observation window 1975–1978, form an important part of UK continuous mortality investigation (CMI) Bureau multiple-state model for PHI business and play an important role in the pricing and reserving for PHI sickness benefits.