Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling II: Uncertainty implications

A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The rate of bleeding has been shown to fall significantly as the extent of rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level in excess of 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions. In a previous paper estimates were obtained of the uncertainties in some planned rectal dose-distribution parameters generated by patient setup error, rectal wall movement and the variable degree of rectal wall distension. Here these uncertainties are combined to obtain estimates of the total planning uncertainties in rectal dosedistribution parameters thought likely, on the basis of mechanistic biological modeling, to correlate strongly with the complication rate.