Adaptation under probabilistic error for estimating linear functionals

The problem of estimating linear functionals based on Gaussian observations is considered. Probabilistic error is used as a measure of accuracy and attention is focused on the construction of adaptive estimators which are simultaneously near optimal under probabilistic error over a collection of convex parameter spaces. In contrast to mean squared error it is shown that fully rate optimal adaptive estimators can be constructed for probabilistic error. A general construction of such estimators is provided and examples are given to illustrate the general theory.