A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications

In this paper we introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman (Quart. J. Econom. 106 (1991) 669) and its modifications. Our framework also enables the modeller to estimate an implicit target zone if it exists. A modelling cycle consisting of specification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed. The model is fitted to series of daily observations of the Swedish and the Norwegian currency indices and the estimated models are evaluated.