The distribution of coalescence times and distances between microsatellite alleles with changing effective population size

We investigate the effects of past changes of the effective population size on the present allelic diversity at a microsatellite marker locus. We first derive the analytical expression of the generating function of the joint probabilities of the time to the Most Recent Common Ancestor for a pair of alleles and of their distance (the difference in allele size). We give analytical solutions in the case of constant population size and the geometrical mutation model. Otherwise, numerical inversion allows the distributions to be calculated in general cases. The effects of population expansion or decrease and the possibility to detect an ancient bottleneck are discussed. The method is extended to samples of three and four alleles, which allows investigating the covariance structure of the frequencies f ( k ) of pairs of alleles with a size difference of k motifs, and suggesting some approaches to the estimation of past demography.