A Hydrology-Vegetation Interaction Model for Predicting the Occurrence of Plant Species in Dune Slacks

A model is presented which predicts the probability of occurrence of 100 dune slack species under different environmental conditions. It is based on 1011 analyses of plant species composition and environment of dune slack sites in Dutch dunes. Groundwater level and derived hydrological variables are the main predictive variables; some site characteristics and climatic variables are also included in the model. tion of the model using an independent data set shows an overall result of 64% correct predictions, despite a tendency to overestimate species occurrences. del is used to predict the effects of changes in the hydrological regime, as a result of drinking-water extraction, on the vegetation composition of wet dune slacks.