Transitions in land use and the problems of planning: a case study from the mountainlands of New Zealand

It remains an elusive goal to integrate economic and productive uses of land, whilst avoiding biophysical constraints and environmental risks as well as being sensitive to the wishes of immediate stakeholders and broader society. We review a number of approaches that have been used to order land use data, and present them to planners and decision makers in a more integrated way. We note that for every numeric planning methodology there are numerous criticisms, which have led to a strategic retreat of numeracy from the public and political spheres. It seems that the art of planning is again more powerful than the science of planning. arts of the mountainlands of New Zealandʹs South Island are in transition. Traditional land uses such as pastoral sheep farming are under economic and environmental pressures. Much of the change is slow, painful and confrontational, and there can be more losers than winners. While we seek to redress such ecological imbalances, it is becoming apparent that visions are needed, rather than maintaining a fond hope of retreating to the land uses of yesteryear. In a pilot study on 225 000 ha of the Mackenzie Basin, we developed and compared a number of future land use scenarios, using the LUPIS “rating and weighting” decision support tool. LUPIS develops scenarios by using the interaction of spatial data, planning rules and a socially-based voting process. a number of social preferences obtained from workshops and seminars, we obtained the likely land use make-up based on the voting patterns of three groups, viz. a technocrat, a green and a forest-green group. In all scenarios, the incumbent pastoral land use declined from its present 83% occupancy to a range of 9–26%. Production forestry could increase from its present <1% to a range of 13–34%. Conservation and recreation could increase from its present 6% to a range of 30–40% of the land area. As a pilot project, this sought to prove the methodology at a practical scale. It did not seek to enter the full consultation process required of a proper scenario development for future planning needs. Because of this, the study has already attracted its fair share of criticism. Nevertheless it has allowed ordered, numeric and transparent planning procedures to once again be the subject of critical discussion. Scenario development using numeric procedures may yet be taken up by regional government and local farmer groups, as a way of looking into the future of land use at a broader scale than the individual farm management unit.