An analysis of the Tatshenshini-Alsek wilderness preservation decision

This paper presents an analysis of a major wilderness preservation controversy concerning the Tatshenshini-Alsek area in north-western British Columbia. It demonstrates how structured judgements about fundamental objectives, potential impacts, and key trade-offs can be used to gain insight into a complex policy decision, even when detailed information is scarce. The basic steps of a decision analysis are employed, including structuring objectives and measures, developing alternatives and characterizing uncertainties regarding impacts. A workshop involving nine senior provincial government experts in relevant areas was held to investigate the range of views about trade-offs involved in the decision. A constructive, small group elicitation approach was used to characterize value trade-offs that were summarized in terms of value function, which was then used to evaluate the alternatives. The study provided information for the provincial government decision to turn the whole area into a park, foregoing mining development.