Calculating and addressing uncertainty for risk-based allowable outage times

This article examines the calculation and treatment of uncertainty in risk-based allowable outage times (AOTs) for operational control at nuclear power plants, where an AOT is defined as the time that a component or system is permitted to be out of service. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has explored the possibility of using a nuclear power plantʹs probabilistic risk assessment results to determine component or system AOTs. The analysis and results from previous work prepared for the NRC on determining risk-based AOTs are presented. As part of the discussion, the article examines the inherent uncertainty in calculating risk-based AOTs and presents the difficulties in calculating these risk-based AOTs. It is noted that care should be taken when dealing with uncertainty analysis results where a time-interval is the outcome of the analysis. In addition, potential improvements in the mechanism of calculating risk-based AOTs are suggested.