Identification of missing scenarios in ESDs using probabilistic dynamics

The event sequence diagram (ESD) framework can be used to qualitatively represent dynamic scenarios. The solution of ESDs can be performed in an analytical manner. Since the construction of ESDs has some inherent analyst dependence, there is scope for omitting scenarios due to certain simplifying assumptions. This is one of the prime drawbacks of the ESD framework. This paper presents an approach for identifying missing scenarios by combining ESDs with probabilistic dynamics. The approach also helps in reducing the variance of a Monte Carlo simulation procedures.