Modelling and quantification of dependent repeatable human errors in system analysis and risk assessment

General equations and numerical tables are developed for quantification of the probabilities of sequentially dependent repeatable human errors. Such errors are typically associated with testing, maintenance or calibration (called “pre-accident” or “pre-initiator” tasks) of redundant safety systems. Guidance is presented for incorporating dependent events in large system fault tree analysis using implicit or explicit methods. Exact relationships between these methods as well as numerical tables and simple approximate methods for system analysis are described. Analytical results are presented for a general human error model while the numerical tables are valid for a specific Handbook (THERP) model. Relationships are pointed out with earlier methods and guides proposed for error probability quantification.