An approximation approach for uncertainty quantification using evidence theory

Over the last two decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) in engineering systems has been performed by the popular framework of probability theory. However, many scientific and engineering communities realize that there are limitations in using only one framework for quantifying the uncertainty experienced in engineering applications. Recently evidence theory, also called Dempster–Shafer theory, was proposed to handle limited and imprecise data situations as an alternative to the classical probability theory. Adaptation of this theory for large-scale engineering structures is a challenge due to implicit nature of simulations and excessive computational costs. In this work, an approximation approach is developed to improve the practical utility of evidence theory in UQ analysis. The techniques are demonstrated on composite material structures and airframe wing aeroelastic design problem.