Ranking without valuing in the face of major uncertainty—The case of the promotion of biodegradable lubricants

Major benefit uncertainties prevent monetary quantification of some environmental amenities. Replacing mineral lubricants with biodegradable substitutes is shown to be a case in point. However, it is possible to rank the social benefits of substituting mineral lubricants with regard to different applications and environments. As the private costs and benefits of substitution are mainly constant, only a policy that prioritizes full substitution in the applications with the greatest benefits can be efficient. It is shown that regulations requiring substitution in certain fields are likely to fulfil this criterion, while subsidies for production, processing, market introduction and research usually fail to meet the efficiency criterion.