Development of a Fuzzy Model for Iranian Marine Casualties Management

Marine Accident investigation multidimensional and complex, so this study aimed to provide a systematic approach to determining the degree of the most influential parameters (dimensions) in accident occurrence in order to improve marine safety in the direction of good governance. In this paper, two-phase procedures are proposed. The first stage utilizes the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) to determine the critical factors of Marine Accident Investigation by interviewing the pertinent authorities. In the second stage, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is applied to pair fuzzy numbers as measurable indices and finally to rank by degree each influential criterion within accident investigation. This study considers 1 goal, 4 aspects, and 31 criteria (parameters) and establishes a ranking model that allows decision-makers to assess the prior ordering of reasons and sort by the most effective parameters involved in marine accident occurrence. The empirical study indicated that "People, working and living conditions, effect" is considered the highest ranking aspect, and "Ability, skills, and knowledge of workers" is considered the most important evaluation criterion overall by experts. These results were derived from fuzzy Delphi analytical hierarchy processing (FDAHP). A demonstration of the prior ordering of accident-causing parameters by authorities was addressed as well. Therefore, ranking the priority of every influential criterion (parameter) will help marine transportation decision makers emphasize the areas in which to improve in order to prevent future marine accidents.