Evaluating spread of invaders from gravity scores – A way of using gravity models in ecology

This study is a theoretical excursion into gravity models and their usability in evaluating importance of spatial structure and population development for the spread of colonizing organisms. A so called “gravity score” for sites is deduced, and such a score could be used for predicting risk of colonization once one site in an area has been subject to introduction of a new species. The analysis further suggests that factors deciding spread between sites differs from those that govern expected population sizes. Gravity models of the kind presented here includes both population dynamics and spatial structure and could be a complement to other models describing organism spread.