Assessment of the Pronyʹs method for BWR stability analysis

It is known that Boiling Water Reactors are susceptible to present power oscillations in regions of high power and low coolant flow, in the power-flow operational map. It is possible to fall in one of such instability regions during reactor startup, since both power and coolant flow are being increased but not proportionally. One other possibility for falling into those areas is the occurrence of a trip of recirculation pumps. Stability monitoring in such cases can be difficult, because the amount or quality of power signal data required for calculation of the stability key parameters may not be enough to provide reliable results in an adequate time range. In this work, the Pronyʹs Method is presented as one complementary alternative to determine the degree of stability of a BWR, through time series data. This analysis method can provide information about decay ratio and oscillation frequency from power signals obtained during transient events. However, so far not many applications in Boiling Water Reactors operation have been reported and supported to establish the scope of using such analysis for actual transient events. This work presents first a comparison of decay ratio and frequency oscillation results obtained by Pronyʹs method and those results obtained by the participants of the Forsmark 1 & 2 Boiling Water Reactor Stability Benchmark using diverse techniques. Then, a comparison of decay ratio and frequency oscillation results is performed for four real BWR transient event data, using Pronyʹs method and two other techniques based on an autoregressive modeling. The four different transient signals correspond to BWR conditions from quasi-steady to power oscillations. Power signals from such transients present a challenge for stability analysis, either because of the low number of data points or need of much iteration, and thus reducing their capability for real time analysis. The results show that Pronyʹs method can be a complementary reliable tool in determining BWRʹs stability degree.